Morgan Stanley boosts ASML target, cites confidence in EUV shipment outlook
Morgan Stanley raised its price target on ASML Holding NV to €1,660 from €1,400 and kept an “overweight” rating on the Dutch chipmaking equipment maker, citing comments from the company’s April annual general meeting as grounds for greater confidence in its near-term EUV shipment capacity.
The analysts now expect ASML to ship 90 EUV tools in 2027, up from the 80-plus unit capacity level management outlined at the company’s first-quarter earnings, and lifted their fiscal year 2028 estimate to 104 tool sets, comprising 96 low numerical aperture tools and 8 high numerical aperture tools.
"We think capacity concerns are overshadowing this earnings power, leaving it underappreciated by the market," the broker said.
ASML shares have risen 41% year-to-date against an 80% gain for the SOXX semiconductor index, as of June 1, 2026, when shares closed at €1,394, the note showed.
At the April AGM, ASML updated shareholders on plans to expand into the Brainport Industries Campus in Eindhoven, with construction beginning in the third quarter of 2026, according to the note. Morgan Stanley said the campus "needs to be the start of a multi-phase build-out" to fully alleviate capacity concerns.
The revised price target is based on a 32 times price-to-earnings multiple applied to Morgan Stanley’s fiscal year 2028 earnings per share estimate of €51.92, implying EPS growth at a 29% compound annual growth rate from fiscal year 2026 to 2028.
The broker lifted its P/E multiple slightly from 31 times, which it described as still at the lower end of its cycle-peak valuation range of 30 to 35 times.
Morgan Stanley projects ASML revenue rising to €37.67 billion in fiscal year 2026, €48.72 billion in fiscal year 2027, and €53.40 billion in fiscal year 2028, from €32.67 billion in fiscal year 2025.
EBIT is forecast at €13.69 billion, €20.40 billion, and €22.34 billion over the same three years respectively, against €11.34 billion in fiscal year 2025.
The bank also cited memory long-term agreements signed by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron as a structural shift in cycle dynamics, noting that LTAs stabilise customer demand and reduce the risk of memory makers overbuilding capacity. "LTAs may yet translate into order intake, for 2028 delivery, soon," the broker said.
On the bull case, Morgan Stanley set a scenario price of €2,000, based on approximately 40 times fiscal year 2027 estimated EPS of approximately €50, assuming rapid recovery at leading-edge logic foundries and limited impact from tariffs and export controls.
The bear case stands at €400, based on approximately 20 times fiscal year 2027 estimated EPS of approximately €20, assuming an equipment market downturn.
The consensus price target distribution ranges from €795 to €1,900, with 81% of analysts carrying an “overweight” rating, 14% “equal-weight,” and 6% “underweight.”
Morgan Stanley’s own estimates for fiscal year 2027 revenue of €48.72 billion, EBIT of €20.40 billion, and EPS of €46.71 stand above consensus estimates of €47.42 billion, €18.77 billion, and €41.99 respectively.
